This is a busy week in terms of major fights with the UFC putting on two events. UFC Fight Night 27 will be going down tomorrow, while UFC 164 will air on PPV this Saturday. For both events I’ll be making educated guesses on the main card fights. Just to lay out some criteria, I will be making the guesses based on a fighters record, their performance in recent fights, head to head competition, and by the methods of victory.
Also, I will most likely be more accurate based on fighters whom I’ve seen fight before, compared to fighters whom I know about but haven’t seen fight. On the former category, I can guess based on experience but on the later I can only be academic. Also I will talk about some under card fights in which I once again have seen the fighters perform before. So here we go:
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs. Kampmann 2
Main Event: Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann
Prediction: Carlos Condit by strikes. Both men are coming off losses to Johnny Hendricks. Even though Condit’s last three fights are decisions, he has more finishes in his record and I do believe he learned enough in their first fight to correct his flaws in his game plan.
Co-main Event: Donald Cerrone vs. Rafael dos Anjos
Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos by decision. Though Cerrone’s got more wins on his record, he’s only on a one fight win streak against K.J. Noons. Dos Anjos on the other hand is on a four fight win streak, three by decision. He’s not a finisher but he knows how to win fights and has more momentum coming in.
Kevin Gastelum vs. Brian Melancon
Prediction: Kevin Gastelum by submission. Gastelum is undefeated including his time in the TUF house and is a true Mixed Martial Artist, despite being an underdog in the house. Melancon is on other hand is only on a two fight win streak and is a late replacement for Paulo Thiago.
Court McGee vs. Robert Whittaker
Prediction: Robert Whittaker by strikes. The TUF Smashes winner is on a two fight win streak including his finals match and has more momentum coming into the fight. TUF 11 winner McGee on the other hand has a one fight win streak coming into this fight by decision.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Erik Perez
Prediction: Eric Perez by strikes. Perez is coming into this fight with an eight fight win streak including three fights in the UFC with two of those fights ending via strikes. Mizugaki on the other hand may have more experience but only comes into this with a two fight win streak, both by decision.
Brad Tavares vs. Robert “Bubba” McDaniel
Prediction: Bubba McDaniel by submission. Despite his losses in TUF 17, McDaniel still comes into this fight with a seven fight win streak, including two straight submissions. Tavares on the other hand only comes in on a three fight streak, all of which are by decision.
UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis
Main Event: Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis
Prediction: Benson Henderson by close decision. Honestly this fight could go either way. Even though Henderson’s gone 7-0 since arriving in the UFC, Pettis’ striking is not to be underestimated. Also all it takes is another one of those “Showtime” kicks and the momentum can swing.
Co-main Event: Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett
Prediction: Josh Barnett by submission. This fight can also go either way as it’ll just be a matter of who can lock in the submission first. Both men have recent losses at the hands of Daniel Cormier, but it doesn’t change the fact that they are two dangerous submission specialists.
Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida
Prediction: Chad Mendes by strikes. Guida may have more experience but only has one win in three fights. Mendes on the other hand comes in on a three fight win streak, all of which ended by strikes. His only career loss in 15 fights is to UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo.
Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera
Prediction: Brandon Vera by strikes. This is the third fight on the main call that can go either way as there are many similarities between the two fighters. Both are veterans that have gone on recent win-loss patterns in their careers and need a win. Also both men have secured most of their career wins by strikes.
Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier
Prediction: Dustin Poirier by strikes. The fourth out of five fights on the main card that can go either way. These fighters are almost carbon copies of each other in terms of fight percentages in their career paths. The only reason why Poirier gets the advantage is the fact that he has slightly more striking wins in terms of percentages, but in reality, this fight could end in a submission for either fighter. Only the fight itself will reveal the outcome.
Agree or disagree with my predictions? Leave a comment!