Both Cain (11-1) and JDS (15-2) are locked in to fights on May 25th at UFC 160 in Vegas. But it’s not hard to envision both their bouts being fairly one sided events.
In the case of the champ, he’s already beat his opponent in Antonio Silva. Not only did he beat him, but he steam rolled over the Brazilian with his patented fighting style involving relentless take downs and smothering ground-and-pound.
He made it look all too easy. That type of shear dominance will be hard to write off as a fluke or something a couple training camps could fix on Silva’s part.
JDS will face Mark Hunt, and although Hunt miraculously earned his shot against the number one contender (holding a 4-0 tear in the heavyweight division); he’s going to play right in to the former champ’s game plan. Hunt will ploddingly move forward, while dropping as many of his well-honed strikes as possible.
Unfortunately for him, JDS will not waste time in testing out Hunt’s chin. In the past it’s held up very well, but in this case, I doubt it will survive the first couple rounds.
At the end of the day, JDS and Cain stand alone among the heavyweights, and therefore will complete their trilogy soon. So when it happens, how will it happen, and who will win?
I believe that looking at the numbers is completely useless for this one. Take in to consideration that both these two are obviously far superior in athletic ability, skill, and well roundedness than any of their previous opponents, so obviously they both look dominate on paper.
What is worth analyzing is both of their previous encounters in the cage, and how exactly it played out both times. It’s safe to say if either fighter had preconceived notions of the other’s abilities or lack thereof cockiness has been left off the table for this one.
In fact, both fights are strikingly similar if one pays attention to the intangibles. Cain was way to attentive in the first fight and JDS capitalized with his lightning quick strikes to put Cain down.
Then in the rematch, Cain came out the aggressor and after a bunch of failed take down attempts, his persistence paid off when he caught a retreating JDS with a monster of an over-hand right.
Of course JDS was never out of the fight like Cain had been, but in theory, both fighters lost when they were attentive, when they seemed content to wait and pick their shots, and more to the point: when they were the least afraid of their opponent.
Look at the stats, and then watch the fights. This rivalry was always going to be decided by the intangibles of the sport, not the punching and kicking and all the rest of it.
Now to the business of who takes the third fight. This is what is known as the rubber match. Don’t ask me why that is, because I’m honestly not sure what it literally stands for, but I do know what it means. This one’s for all the marbles and all the glory.
So in the end, both of these fighters are going to come out with a whole lot of urgency and very little remorse when the cage door shuts. JDS will be working his boxing, hunting for the KO, and avoiding the take-downs while Cain will be hunting for head shots but also looking to catch JDS standing a bit too tall, hoping to snatch a leg and take the fight to the ground.
Where JDS was able to KO Cain, it is also arguable that his ability to put away his adversary is limited to one solid punch, while Cain is capable of grinding this one out over a grueling five rounds, just like he did in their rematch.
Here’s how I see it. Either JDS wins by KO or Cain takes it by decision. Since statistically a decision is more likely, I’ll say Cain has a 65% chance at defending his belt for the first time, while JDS has a 35% of replicating his success he found in their first fight.
Now considering the level of skill these guys bring to the table, I guarantee you any little mistake that happens in the inevitable rubber match between these two, will lead to someone paying the price for it. That’s just how I think it really works.
Then jack ass reporters like myself will over analyze something we could never replicate or understand, and only admire. Velasquez vs. JDS will be an honor to witness regardless of the outcome.